Climate Change and Western Glaciers
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The Map of Western Glaciers shows the general locations for eight thousand plus documented glaciers in the area.
Examining glacial advance and retreat patterns in any specific area on the map generally shows they are determined partly by local precipitation and temperature patterns.
The Glaciers of Northern California, for example, are among the few to remain in equilibrium over the past decade. Scientists attribute the stability to increased precipitation in the region.
Glacier retreat dominates the predictions for other areas, especially the larger glacial areas along the northern border. Consider the following two areas.
The North Cascades Glaciers are the largest group of glaciers in the continental United States.
The North Cascades Glacier Climate Project considers potential climate change impacts using a conservative temperature change estimate (2o C) and concludes,
"Thus, we would likely see the loss of up to 65-75% of North Cascade glaciers due to a 2OC warming, but most will take more than 40 years to disappear."
Glacier National Park sits at the upper right end of the map. Mountains in the Lewis Range reach heights of 9,000-10,000 feet.
The Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100 uses a higher end of the spectrum temperature estimate and shows the disappearance of those glaciers by the year 2030.
They say, "The simulation below reflects the predicted exponential rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, a 2xCO2 "global warming" scenario, with a concurrent warming of 2-3 degrees centigrade (4-5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2050."
The animation continues, showing subsequent ecosystem changes. Mountain areas will add more trees and shrubs. Grasslands will fill the valleys.
It is difficult to determine which end of the temperature spectrum is a more appropriate estimate.
Climate models dealing specifically with United States climate continue to improve, in step with improvements in the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to model global climate patterns.
Researchers from Iowa State recently published their results that suggest anywhere between a 4oF - 6oF temperature increase for the region, the highest in the country.
Their predictions fall in line with the temperature spectrum adopted by the glaciologists.
Given the statistical uncertainties associated with climate models, it might be too early to suggest the loss of all Western glaciers. However, current trends suggest a changing Western landscape.
© 2007-2009. Patricia A. Michaels